Sydney
Unlocking housing supply on Sydney’s North Shore – what the new LMR + TOD rules really deliver
- Events
May 2025
At last week’s Development Summit (10 May 2025) Mecone’s Executive Chair Ben Hendriks unveiled fresh modelling that stress‑tests the State’s new Low‑ & Mid‑Rise Housing Policy (LMR) and Transit‑Oriented Development (TOD) program across 22 centres from St Ives to Milsons Point.
Using the same geocode engine that underpinned the Sydney Metro West and Parramatta Light Rail business cases, the team asked a simple question: “How much of the Lower North Shore can actually develop under the new rules once hazards, market filters and SEPP trip‑wires are removed?”
Headline results
- 4 840 redevelopment‑ready parcels survive a three‑layer sieve (hazard, market, policy) — roughly 42 % of all R‑zoned land in the corridor.
- Capacity splits into 28 % duplex‑only, 41 % townhouse / walk‑up (1.5 FSR band), and 31 % mid‑rise / TOD (2.2–2.5 FSR bands).
- Top centres by total potential dwellings: Gladesville (~1 750 lots), Chatswood (~1 540) and Lane Cove (~1 240).
- Highest TOD intensity: Roseville (229 lots), Gordon (217), Crows Nest (203) — all within 400 m of rail.
- Highest high‑LMR uplift (2.2 FSR): Spit Junction (389 lots) and Neutral Bay (309) open the door to six‑storey stock in premium suburbs.
Implications for the North Shore
For developers, the findings pinpoint precincts where land values, zoning uplift and service capacity align — especially along the Pacific Highway/Ku‑ring‑gai line and the Ryde Road spine. Councils can use the parcel layer to prioritise infrastructure contributions and DCP updates, while State agencies gain evidence for staging utilities, transport and social services. The forthcoming Pattern‑Book fast‑track (30‑day DA for compliant duplex, terrace and small‑flat designs) promises to shorten approval time and reduce holding costs, particularly in the R2 duplex market.
Download & explore
The full slide deck, centre‑by‑centre heat‑maps and parcel data are available below. An interactive version of the model will be live shortly in Mosaic Pro, enabling users to query individual sites and run quick feasibility checks.
For further briefing or bespoke capacity analysis, contact the Mecone Policy & Analytics team.
Download Ben Hendrik’s full presentation below.
Low-and Mid-Rise Reforms (LMR) and its application on the North Shore
